6,070 marks a 5% pullback from the highs — and it’s the first real support zone in play.
Here’s the chart:
Let's break down what the chart shows:
The top panel plots the S&P 500 daily close in black.
Horizontal lines mark three key retracement levels from the all-time high of 6,390:
5% pullback level at 6,070 (gray)
10% correction level at 5,751 (orange)
20% bear market level at 5,112 (red)
The lower three panels track how many market days have passed since each type of drawdown:
Gray = 5% pullback (current streak: 71 days)
Orange = 10% correction (79 days)
Red = 20% bear market (702 days)
The Takeaway: Last week’s –2.4% drop brings us closer to a key test — the 5% pullback level, which sits at 6,070 on the S&P 500 — and it’s the first real support level I’m watching for support.
If the bulls are still in control, this is where they show up.
Right now, the trend is intact — but it’s under review.
Here’s the roadmap I’m watching.
First is 6,070 — the 5% drawdown mark. It lines up with the 50-day moving average and the February 2025 highs. That’s the first spot where buyers need to defend.
If that fails, the next level sits at 5,751 — a 10% correction and a key shelf from the July 2024 highs.
Below that? The line that defines the bull market itself: 5,112. That’s a 20% drawdown from the highs and where price bottomed in both April 2024 and April 2025.
None of these levels are arbitrary.
They’re defined by price memory — not guesswork — and what happens at each one will shape the path forward.
So, 6,070 is the first battleground. A bounce keeps the uptrend clean. A break opens the door to more volatility.
So which is it — support, or setup for something bigger?
Grant Hawkridge | Chief Aussie Operator, All Star Charts
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