Weekly Wrap – Thoughts on the Cruise Biz, Scams, the Markets and A*Holes
On the a*holes, let’s just say I’ve met more than a few.
August 24, 2025
▶ Greetings from somewhere in the Labrador Sea... I’m on a ship with about 400 others headed to a few places my wife and I have never visited, but have been on our list. For us, cruises are not cruises, the way many of you think of cruises, but an efficient and convenient way to see parts of the world we want to see without packing/unpacking. Plus... we enjoy being on the water. Being on a ship isn’t for everybody. But it has gotten us to every continent and more than 50 countries. What’s clear is that these ships aren’t going out empty. The ship we’re on is full or near-full. And whenever I walk past the “future cruise consultant’s” desk there are always people stacked up to see her.
The cruise industry’s remarkable recovery post-pandemic confirms just how much people like to cruise, but in my view they’re split in two groups: People who cruise for the sake of cruising, and people who go for the itinerary. We’re in the latter group, and the good news for the cruise industry is... I would bet more people are in the other. Still, the industry faces what I consider to be a boatload full of risks. And I’m even not talking about financial stressors, including efforts to whittle down high debt levels required to survive Covid.
Among the issues I see, in no particular order – based on my observations (which may be skewed because I don’t do the mass market mega-ships)...
Due to geopolitical issues, there are fewer places to go. That may change, but Russia is closed, China is somewhat open, the Suez Canal is closed, impacting ports in the Middle East, and Taiwan is a wild card. And Dubai, which is a major embarkation/debarkation port, is at the whim of tensions in Iran, which could open or close the Strait of Hormuz.
And even if countries are open, backlash against big or ecologically unfit cruise ships in many popular ports like Barcelona, Venice and even Norway has skyrocketed.
At the same time, as competition intensifies, there’s a risk of overcapacity as bigger and bigger ships are being built. These small ships are a vanishing breed, with the notable exception of the super-luxury lines such as Four Seasons and Ritz, which have taken pricing and experience up a few notches. And they’re possibly stealing share from smaller yachts. There’s also a proliferation of expedition ships, though I would argue there are only so many places in Greenland you need to go.
With more and bigger ships the number of qualified staff, which have experience in the hospitality industry, is limited... worldwide. This is obvious to seasoned cruisers – especially on the so-called luxury lines.
Cost-cutting... Certainly at the so-called “luxury” level, the perks are fewer, with subtle cuts here and there.
Finally, there’s this chart from the Cruise Line Industry Association’s latest annual report, which shows a deceleration in growth by 2028...
Source: The Cruse Line Industry Association
As growth slows, capacity is expected to continue growing..
Source: The Cruse Line Industry Association
For what it’s worth: That last chart on projected capacity, which goes through 2028, is from the industry’s year-ago report. The most recent report’s capacity forecast didn’t go beyond 2025.
Interpret at will.
▶ The Financial Times weighs in... Not on cruises, but on the WhatsApp/China stock scams, that is, which I first red-flagged here back in June. This snippet from their story...
Stock pump and dumps — where people with a vested interest artificially inflate a company’s share price before abruptly selling their own holdings — have plagued US markets for decades but were last a major problem during the bull run of 2020 and 2021, when dozens of unprofitable Chinese groups rocketed higher then tumbled shortly after listing.
The FBI said last month it had seen a 300 per cent year-on-year increase in victim complaints “referencing ramp and dump stock fraud”. It added that investors were being targeted on social media by people impersonating “legitimate brokerage firms or well-known stock analysts”.
Many scams are linked to the record number of Chinese companies that went public on US stock exchanges in 2024, a trend that has continued this year with China and Hong Kong-based companies dominating the otherwise sleepy US microcap IPO market.
My interpretation: yet another sign of an unhinged market.
▶ Speaking of which, this market rolls on... Even with the recent “tech selloff,” it wasn’t much different than the seas I’m sailing on. A new high here, a selloff there, a rally there. This market in this current go-round has been as easy as, buy the dip, let ‘er rip! There, of course, lies the danger – especially for newbies who appear to be driving much of this market, but also pros who fear they’ll miss out – just like they did with SPACs. And, as I’ve written several times now... SPACs are back! Even the biggest SPAC promoter of the 2021 SPAC-tacular boom/bust is back, per the FT...
Source: The Financial Times
Trading and betting has morphed into entertainment for many Americans. Group chats pop with comments from friends on sports, hot stocks and memes. Everyone seems to know someone who made millions overnight in cryptocurrencies. Changed attitudes toward gambling have coincided with tech advances that have made it easier, and cheaper, to trade a wide variety of assets. Some brokerages have sought to “gamify” investing, creating the look and feel of a casino within their apps. At the same time, they also offer high-octane trades on things such as options and prediction markets.
It works, of course, until it doesn’t. Market strategist John Hussman of Hussman Econometrics, who is often painted as a perma-bear – and who I’ve been quoting for decades, which means he has decades of cycles under his belt – sees it this way, in a long explanation that leads up to this conclusion...
[F]rom the standpoint of valuations, a century of market history, the economics of equilibrium, and just plain arithmetic, my own take is simple: I expect this bubble to end in tears.
They all do! But riddle me this... will you be buying that dip?
The new wild card, after all, is the parlor game of which company the government – deficit notwithstanding – will invest in next? And if not the government – there’s always Softbank. What a world!
▶ Moving on, let’s talk assholes... Like the guy who ran the news division of a TV network – who cancelled my meeting with him while I was sitting in his office for an appointment we had for an interview. Then there was the now-dead investment banker who for a time was a good source. He showed his Mr. Hyde side when I mentioned to him casually on a call that his executive assistant and I lived in the same town in New Jersey... and that I’d see her on the train every now and then. “Don’t you ever talk to her again,” he barked. I’m not sure I ever talked with him again. (And he was one of the nicer ones! Don’t even get me started on the well-known head of one of the best known securities firms who was so incensed by something I wrote that, well... let’s just say there are some things you can’t unsee or unhear.) All of these jerks, long thought to be banished from my memory, popped back into my head when I read a fabulous essay by my former CNBC colleague and non-asshole Bob Pisani headlined, “Assholes and How to Deal with Them.”
He wrote...
I come from the world of media and Wall Street
I worked at the intersection of two great businesses: television and Wall Street.
I met a lot of brilliant and generous people, many of whom changed my life for the better.
I also met a lot of assholes.
I mean, a lot of assholes.
What is it about these two businesses that bring out so many assholes?
What is an asshole? Assholes are people who think the normal rules of civil society don’t apply to them. They’re people who think their needs and wants are all that matter and don’t give a rat’s ass about other people’s needs or wants. They’re people who use bullying and intimidation to get what they want. They’re people who look for reasons to not get along with people and undermine them, because they believe that is the best way to get ahead. They’re people who view everyone on earth as a tool they can use to get ahead.
Finally, real assholes never apologize. For anything.
No – they don’t. You can read his entire essay here. Enjoy.
▶ Finally, if you’re wondering what I’m doing on my summer vacation... birds are the bane of my photographic existence. Getting them in flight, not blurred, is my holy grail. After tinkering with the settings and taking more than 100 photos of puffins at Heimaey on Iceland’s Westman Islands did the stars align and my trusty Sony RX10 iii captured this...
Heimaey, Iceland August 2025
We have since been in Greenland. Onto Newfoundland...
DISCLAIMER: This is solely my opinion based on my observations and interpretations of events, based on published facts and filings, and should not be construed as personal investment advice. (Because it isn’t!) Subsequent to my original report I bought shares of Turning Point, and am under no obligation to disclose any future purchase or sale.
