The Wrap – 'It's Like Waking Up From a Coma'
Also, if you missed my latest on GFL. Also, a quick update on Off the Radar's Edwards Lifesciences.
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▶Sometimes it's healthy to just… get away. In the process, forgetting about the markets, politics, and anything else remotely dysfunctional to the point of toxic.
Normally my wife and I do that with trips that are far, far away. But this year is different. No trips, just this increasingly all-consuming, enormously disruptive move from San Diego to the Bay Area. In the span of a bit more than a month, we’ve sold our house, closed on the sale, bought a house, and found a rental to live in while the new house is being renovated. Oh, and we picked out plumbing fixtures and appliances long-distance while trying to whittle down some of what we own since we are shedding square footage. And it’s now… t-minus less than two weeks before the packers and movers come.
This move, taking us back to where we lived for 10 years a few decades ago, has been in the conceptual phase for six years, ever since our first grandkid was born... resulting in driving back-and-forth one time too many. It has taken us that long to get our heads around not just moving – again! – but more than that: leaving San Diego, which is, without question, the finest place we have ever lived. Even when the weather is bad, in years when the dreariness of the “May Gray” and “June Gloom” marine layers seem to go on forever, it’s hard to beat.
But there’s more to life than weather…
This will be our eighth long-distance move over our nearly 50 years together – the 11th, in all – and if we’ve learned nothing else, there’s no getting around the rug-pull, all-consuming nature of any move regardless of the distance or the number of times you’ve done it.
All of which is a long-winded way of saying: When you get away from your daily routine and then take a moment to catch up on what you missed, it’s like waking up from a multi-week coma, especially with some of these highest-flying stocks, some of which are on my Red Flag Alerts list.
Like AXT Technology AXTI 0.00%↑. Remember that one? It nearly doubled in the span of weeks after I first wrote about it in March. It has since done a full round-trip, and then some.
Or Oklo OKLO 0.00%↑. Oh, it’s still well above where I first red-flagged it, but the swoon in its stock is a reminder to those who think stocks go to the sky: that while some seem to, for most the laws of gravity still apply.
And even boring old Modine Manufacturing MOD 0.00%↑, which is hitched at the hip to the data center narrative. Right now, it’s proving to be a classic “live-by, die-by” story. (I say “right now” because… I’ve seen the movie before, and plenty of reruns!)
It’s that kinda market, and only getting even wilder. After all, every time I think there is a new “this is it!” moment, another pops up.
Interpret at will…
▶If you missed it, my latest on the dysfunction junction (rumor, rumor, whosa got a rumor) better known as GFL Environmental GFL 0.00%↑….
That was a little more than a week ago, with the rumor floated over the July 4 holiday, followed by more stories on the Monday following the Fourth… causing the stock to leap higher, before settling back.
▶Before life got in the way: I got this close to updating my original Off the Radar on Edwards Lifesciences EW 0.00%↑ , which makes artificial heart valves… like the one keeping me alive. Two things caught my attention: A new CFO, Doretta Mistras, a former healthcare investment banker, who had played a key role in helping turn around Vistra VST 0.00%↑. That was followed more recently by positive clinical trial results for using the percutaneous non-open-heart TAVR to replace aortic valves in patients with moderate heart-valve disease.
PSA: As an aside, as a zealot on heart-valve disease awareness – I was pleased to see the company finally market the risks of heart-valve disease with its “Stay in the Race” campaign. As much as we can debate the merits of medical marketing, especially for devices and procedures, I’ve done enough research into aortic valve disease to know one thing: the early signs that you may be heading that way – starting with a doctor saying you may have a “murmur” – are sometimes easily dismissed and forgotten about. Yet ignored and not “watched,” it can ultimately lead to heart failure. Even with annual echocardiograms, the last thing you want to hear when you're waiting/watching to see how things progress is that your left ventricle is getting larger. Left too long, it can lead to heart failure. And based on everything I’ve heard and read, that is not a fun way to spend the last years of your life. The sad truth is that in many cases, it is totally preventable.
▶Finally, I’ll leave you with this…
The headline said…
My take: Smart seller, overzealous, dumb buyer.
▶And if you’re wondering: Last week I said I thought I’d have a new Red Flag Alert this week. As is often the case, it's taking longer than expected.
DISCLAIMER: This is solely my opinion based on my observations and interpretations of events, based on published facts and filings, and should not be construed as personal investment advice. (Because it isn’t!) Other than owning shares in Edwards, I have no position in any stock mentioned here.
I can be reached at herb@herbgreenberg.com.