The Wrap – The Truth About the 'GPU Utilization' Debate. And...'You Retire, You Die.'
Also, updates on Roku, Omnicom, Resmed, AXT
▶Before we get going, if you missed my report earlier in the week documenting what corporate users think of OpenAI – and why they’re defecting and where they’re going – you can read it here…
▶And if you missed my chat with David Weidner of CapitAI on his new index and methodology for tracking which companies are REALLY committed to using AI, you can see it here…
▶Speaking of all things AI, and how nobody knows nothin’: The latest in the AI bubble tug-of-war is over whether there really is a scarcity of GPUs. Those are the chips that drive AI by powering data centers. That, of course, ultimately gets to the question of whether we’re at the data centers gone wild phase of this cycle. On one hand, you have a Twitter post like this one, which made the chatter rounds…
But then there was this one, buried in this thread, which also drew sharp debate…
None of this takes into account what happens when enterprise use by corporations really kicks in… whenever that might be. So, I went to the source: Gemini and Claude, and asked which side is right, and then how the evolution of use by enterprise fits in, which is something neither side addressed.
After long-winded answers by both, they both gave answers that – reading between the lines – were a concession that they’re as clueless as everybody else. Ditto when I asked the enterprise question. Gemini kicked that question back to me, but not before saying…
And Claude concluded…
Interpret at will…
▶Speaking of whether it is or is not an AI bubble: For a realistic view, check out this presentation at The Money Show from my pal, the tech analyst, Paul Meeks. The thing about Paul is... he's a realist, not a razzle-dazleist. And he has been through the cycles, which is why I put more weight on his approach to this question than most.
▶Finally, before we go behind the paywall… If you missed it, this interview by Patrick O’Shaughnessy of legendary investor Paul Tudor Jones has been making the rounds. And for good reason, since it’s loaded with insights into the markets and… life. The part the grabbed me most: what he said about retirement. Here, he’s talking about what happened when he and his wife moved to Palm Beach once his kids were out of the house…
So we ended up down here in Palm Beach. She gets me to see a GP, the GP, a general practitioner. She makes me go in, I see the guy.
This guy’s 83 years old. And I say to him, you’re living here in the land of the walking dead. Everyone here is basically fossilized.
What is the secret to longevity? And he goes, it’s real simple. You retire, you die.”
That one line defines why I haven't and won't. (Retire, that is.) So, please stop asking.
▶Oh, and this update: I had mentioned I was fast-tracking a new red-flag alert. After doing more work, I realized I needed to put it back on the slow track. Should be any day.
▶And… there will be in all likelihood be no Wrap next week. As always, I reserve the right to change my mind.