Trying Not to Cross the Line
Trying Not to Cross the Line
Recap of recent posts plus an updated Red Flag Alerts list
(This friendly reminder: My Red Flag Alerts and selected On the Street content are no longer free. But while the paint is still drying on my paywall, my introductory price remains. Here’s more on my decision to go paid, and what to expect from my Red Flag Alerts.)
There’s a fine line between creating noise and adding value...
I try to stay on this side of it, especially with my Red Flag Alerts. It’s a lesson I learned decades ago when I had a short-biased newsletter at the original TheStreet.com. We charged $30,000 a year and had 50 customers.
My editors always implored me to write more, demanding a new idea every week. If you look hard enough, you can always find something... and I usually did, allowing me to follow their orders.
That was until I heard from one subscriber, who also happened to run one of the most prestigious hedge funds of the day. His name was John, and John was blunt:
“You’re becoming noise.”
No Publishing Schedule
That has echoed in my head ever since.
I feel strongly in not setting a specific schedule, because doing so encourages writing for the sake of writing and meeting a schedule. Been there, done that! I believe that’s the wrong reason to publish... especially when everybody is already overwhelmed by emails.
That said, as longtime readers know, I’m wired to write, and with On the Street and Red Flag Alerts, I’m constantly tinkering with the right balance. It’s an art.
I also want to thank everybody who has opted in as a paid subscriber. The paywall has been up for just over a month and I’m thrilled with the uptake, which has continued to climb. It’s comments from new subscribers like this that make my day...
As always, I welcome all feedback.
In Case You Missed It
My posts from last week...
Drone manufacturer AeroVironment AVAV 0.00%↑ has hit the Red Flag Radar as an idea that is worthy of additional work to determine if it is worthy of a full Red Flag Alert. As the only public maker of military drones, its stock has been red hot, especially since the start of the Ukraine war. Its drones changed the war, but they’re also expensive. The Ukrainians have since found a considerably cheaper workaround, that ultimately may work against AeroVironment. Lots more to this story, and I’m just starting to dig in. Stay tuned...
Tupperware TUP 0.00%↑, which I have been tracking for years, finally filed for bankruptcy reorg, with a plan to sell itself. Earlier in the week I published a free “case study” on the company on what went wrong. Let’s just say the company stayed at its own Tupperware Party way too long.
Recent Red Flag Alerts...
Vital Farms VITL 0.00%↑, which is the leader in pasture-raised eggs…
Erie Indemnity ERIE 0.00%↑, which is just being added to the S&P 500, and CorVel CRVL 0.00%↑ – a real head-scratcher…
Otter Tail OTTR 0.00%↑, which makes PVC piping…
Updated Red Flag Alerts List
I started flying the Red Flags of stocks to avoid in May of last year as a way to highlight stocks to avoid… or double-down on research if you’re long. The roster has grown to 30 names. As of Friday, they range from -97% to +38%, for a total average annual return – admittedly, a simple calculation – of -22%. (I keep joking: if only I was paid on short alpha!)
The latest list is available for paying subscribers below.
Also, this reminder... this is not a “coverage” list. I publish it for full transparency to see the good, bad and ugly.
Now for that full Red Flag Alerts list…